FORECASTING OF BIODIESEL PRICES IN THAILAND USING TIME SERIES DECOMPOSITION METHOD FOR LONG TERM FROM 2017 TO 2036
نویسندگان
چکیده
Currently, the Thailand government is promoting biofuel, especially producer of biodiesel. Starting from 2015, Ministry Energy has determined that palm oil remaining domestic consumption 14 million liters per day in 2036. Forecasting biodiesel prices are most important since price volatility affects renewable energy future. This paper presents with time series decomposition method. The source data comes Policy and Planning Office, Thailand, monthly average retail regular-grade biodiesel, during 2007 – 2016, 120 months total. study aims to use forecasting methods deter over next 20 years, 2017 solution starts decomposing into a trend, cycle, seasonal, any irregular components then calculates multiplicative model. model shows continuous decreasing trend around 27.50 25.84 THB/liter 22.36 Moreover, method least mean absolute present error (MAPE) at 0.24651. Keywords: Biodiesel, Forecasting, Time-Series Method JEL Classifications: C01, C10, E17, O21 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.10666
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2146-4553']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.10666